Bank of America’s CFO says no recession in sight
Bank of America’s Chief Financial Officer Alastair Borthwick has pushed back against growing fears of an imminent U.S. recession, telling reporters this week that the banking giant sees no immediate signs of an economic downturn—despite recent market turmoil and intensifying trade tensions.
“Client concerns over trade policy and recent market turmoil have grown,” Borthwick acknowledged during a press call on April 15.
“Still, our research team at this point doesn’t believe we’ll see a recession, and our clients continue to show encouraging signs. Employment is obviously healthy, and consumers have proven resilient.”
The comments arrive at a moment of acute uncertainty for U.S. markets, following former President Donald Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping new tariffs, dubbed “Liberation Day” measures.
The policy shift erased roughly $3.1 trillion in stock market value the next day—marking Wall Street’s sharpest single-day loss since March 2020.
Borthwick’s reassurance comes with a dose of pragmatism. The bank has boosted its credit loss provisions to $1.53 billion, a 12% increase year over year, suggesting a deliberate hedge against potential credit deterioration.
Still, Borthwick pointed to stable corporate earnings and steady employment—3.8% unemployment in March, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics—as evidence that the fundamentals remain strong.
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan echoed the outlook during an earnings call the same day, citing resilient consumer activity as a key buffer against economic fragility.
“The consumer keeps pushing money into the economy,” Moynihan said. “All our consumer spending methods—debit and credit cards, ACH, checks written, Zelle, etc.—all that aggregate shows it grew at about a 4.4% pace in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2024.”
This aligns with data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, which reported a 2.8% annual increase in personal consumption expenditures through March.
Still, concerns persist.
A recent survey by market research firm Numerator found that 83% of U.S. consumers plan to adjust their spending habits in anticipation of higher prices driven by tariffs.
Seventy-two percent said they are “very or somewhat concerned” about a recession in the next year.
Even within the financial sector, not all voices are aligned. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, in his April 2025 shareholder letter, offered a starkly different take:
“The economy is facing considerable turbulence (including geopolitics), with the potential negatives of tariffs and ‘trade wars,’ ongoing sticky inflation, high fiscal deficits, and still rather high asset prices and volatility.”
Despite those warnings, Borthwick suggested that the full economic impact of tariffs has yet to materialize.
The bank is maintaining a balanced position—acknowledging downside risks while staying firm in its assessment that consumer and employment strength provide sufficient support for near-term stability.
Though market signals remain mixed—such as the S&P 500’s recent “death cross” on April 14, often interpreted as a bearish indicator—analysts caution that technical trends may not necessarily reflect broader macroeconomic direction.
Borthwick’s stance, rooted in on-the-ground consumer data and internal forecasts, offers a counterweight to market pessimism.
For finance chiefs and corporate strategists, Bank of America’s tone may offer a momentary pause from the gloom.
But with trade policy still evolving, inflationary pressures lingering, and geopolitical instability continuing to reshape global demand, the bank’s hedging actions suggest that caution remains the underlying posture.
As Borthwick summed it up: “We don’t see the signs of a downturn in the near term.” Whether that holds, in a year shaped by politics and policy shocks, remains the question markets will continue to test.