Earnings » Revenue Radar: Peloton pedals towards profitability, but user growth slows

Revenue Radar: Peloton pedals towards profitability, but user growth slows

Peloton Interactive, the leading interactive fitness platform, has delivered a mixed bag of results in its Q4 FY2024 earnings report, showcasing significant improvements in profitability metrics while facing challenges in user growth.

The company’s financial performance indicates a strategic shift towards sustainable profitability, but questions remain about its ability to reignite subscriber growth in an increasingly competitive market.

Peloton reported its Q4 FY2024 earnings on August 22, 2024.

Financial Performance Overview:

  • Total Revenue: $643.6 million, up 0.2% year-over-year
  • Net Loss: $30 million, improved from a loss of $241.8 million in Q4 FY2023
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $70.3 million, up from negative $34.7 million in Q4 FY2023
  • Free Cash Flow: $26.0 million, up from negative $74.0 million in Q4 FY2023

“We ended the 2024 fiscal year with strong Q4 performance, meeting or exceeding our guidance on all key metrics and making continued progress on a number of our financial goals. With a stable financial foundation now in place, we can focus on innovation in a more strategic way, enhancing our Member experience and driving sustainable, profitable growth over the long term.” said CEO Barry McCarthy.

User Growth and Engagement:

  • Total Members: 6.4 million, down 2% year-over-year and 2% quarter-over-quarter
  • Ending Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions: 2.981 million, down 1% year-over-year
  • Average Net Monthly Paid Connected Fitness Subscription Churn: 1.9%, up 10 basis points year-over-year
  • Ending Paid App Subscriptions: 0.615 million, down 26% year-over-year

Peloton’s Q4 results reveal challenges in user acquisition and retention, particularly in the Connected Fitness segment. The company ended the quarter with 2.981 million Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions, reflecting a net decrease of 75 thousand in the quarter. Despite this decrease, the company noted that this figure exceeded internal expectations, driven by higher gross additions in first party, third party retail, and secondary market channels.

The Average Net Monthly Paid Connected Fitness Subscription churn of 1.9% was in line with the company’s seasonality expectations for a sequential increase in Q4. However, the year-over-year increase in churn rate highlights the ongoing challenge of retaining subscribers in an increasingly competitive fitness market.

Paid App Subscriptions saw a significant decline, ending the quarter at 615 thousand, down 26% year-over-year. This sharp decrease reflects Peloton’s strategic decision to reduce media spend supporting App growth while focusing on enhancing content offerings and developing new features.

Revenue streams and profitability

  • Connected Fitness Products Revenue: $212.1 million, down 4% year-over-year
  • Subscription Revenue: $431.4 million, up 2% year-over-year
  • Total Gross Profit: $312.0 million, up 55% year-over-year
  • Total Gross Margin: 48.5%, up 1,720 basis points year-over-year

Peloton’s Q4 results show a significant improvement in profitability metrics, despite challenges in hardware sales. The company’s subscription segment continues to be the primary driver of growth and profitability.

Subscription Revenue grew to $431.4 million, marking a 2% year-over-year increase. This growth outpaced the decline in Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions, indicating successful implementation of pricing strategies and the introduction of new subscription tiers.

Connected Fitness Products Revenue saw a 4% year-over-year decrease to $212.1 million. However, the segment’s gross margin improved substantially, reaching 8.3% compared to -37.5% in the same quarter last year.

The company’s overall gross margin reached a record high of 48.5%, up 1,720 basis points year-over-year. Peloton achieved positive Adjusted EBITDA of $70.3 million and Free Cash Flow of $26.0 million, marking significant improvements from the previous year and demonstrating progress towards sustainable profitability.

Strategic focus

Peloton continues to innovate and adapt its offerings to meet market demands:

  • Launched the Bike+ rental program in the UK with positive early results
  • Ceased offering the original Bike rental program due to insufficient refurbished inventory
  • Focused on growing the Tread business, with Connected Fitness revenue from the treadmill portfolio growing 42% year-over-year in Q4
  • Introduced Pace Targets, a new offering that enables instruction for personalized intensity levels on treadmills
  • Launched a Half Marathon Training Program and a new marketing campaign to promote the Tread offering

The company also reported progress in its Precor business, which is part of the Connected Fitness segment. Precor grew revenue more than 20% year-over-year, driven by key product launches and improvements in gross margin.

To support community building, Peloton recently launched Find Friends, a feature designed to enhance the platform’s social aspects beyond the leaderboard. This and upcoming social features are intended to drive Member retention and organic acquisition over time.

But while Peloton has made significant strides in improving its financial performance, it faces ongoing challenges in the competitive fitness industry. The company acknowledges the need to balance aggressive expansion in emerging markets with maintaining profitability.

Future outlook and guidance

For Q1 FY2025, Peloton expects:

  • Ending Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions: 2.88 to 2.89 million
  • Ending Paid App Subscriptions: 0.56 to 0.57 million
  • Total Revenue: $560.0 to $580.0 million
  • Total Gross Margin: 50.0%
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $50.0 to $60.0 million

For the full fiscal year 2025, Peloton projects:

  • Ending Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions: 2.68 to 2.75 million
  • Ending Paid App Subscriptions: 0.57 to 0.62 million
  • Total Revenue: $2,400.0 to $2,500.0 million
  • Total Gross Margin: 49.0%
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $200.0 to $250.0 million

The company expects to deliver meaningful Free Cash Flow on a full year basis of at least $75 million.

Peloton’s outlook for FY25 reflects a prioritization of improving profitability and Free Cash Flow. The company remains optimistic about its investments in content and product development but acknowledges that it will take time to apply learnings and iterate on new features before they can meaningfully enhance the Member experience.

The guidance does not include a benefit to connected fitness hardware sales in FY25 from growth initiatives. With its cost structure better aligned to the current size of the business, and a planned path to sustainable positive Free Cash Flow, Peloton believes it now has a solid foundation in place to build upon for long-term, profitable growth and shareholder value.

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