Millennium timebomb - scaremongering or reality?

Few finance directors – and no business journalists for that matter – are spared the daily onslaught of literature warning of the hideous disasters which will befall those companies which fail to ready their computer systems for the Year 2000.

Staring at the near-toppling pile of press releases, reports and surveys on this desk, which have emanated from consultants, software companies, Big Six accountancy firms and others, it is difficult not to feel somewhat cynical about the doom-merchant and their underlying motives.

On one hand we are told that companies need to spend many millions of pounds to bring their systems up to date, while on the other there are those that claim a reasonably priced software “bandaid” is all that’s required to avert the millennium crisis. The whole issue is confusing, incomprehensible and smacks of commercially-driven scaremongering.

Yet while one can easily question the degree of self-interest behind the millennium timebomb warnings, the message itself is hard to ignore.

Perhaps companies’ entire information systems won’t come crashing down on the stroke of midnight of December 31, 1999. But who is prepared to take that risk ?

It has become something of a cliche to say that if you haven’t done anything about millennium compliance by now then it is probably too late. Some consultants predict that by mid-1998, when the new century is uncomfortably near, IT specialists will be able to command contract rates of #1,200 a day as the last-minute panic sets in.

Recent research by Hyperion Software (see page 37) suggests most FDs are not overly concerned about Year 2000, but it would be wrong to draw the conclusion from this that they are unaware of the problem. During the round table forum featured in this month’s issue (see page 21), EMI Group finance director Simon Duffy stressed that Year 2000 was a much bigger and more pressing IT problem for UK businesses than the introduction of a single currency. While it would be possible for EU leaders to defer the launch of EMU should they feel adequate preparations were not in place, there is nothing anyone can do to postpone the 21st century.