Majority of CFOs see recession hitting in second half of 2025
A growing number of America’s corporate finance chiefs are bracing for a recession by year-end, as pessimism about the broader economy and political volatility climbs, according to the latest CNBC CFO Council Survey.
Roughly 60% of respondents now expect the U.S. economy to enter a recession in the second half of 2025, up sharply from just 7% who forecast the same three months ago.
An additional 15% believe the contraction will begin in 2026. The sharp shift in sentiment comes amid ongoing trade tensions, sliding consumer confidence, and policy uncertainty emanating from Washington.
“We’re in a chaotic, highly disruptive environment,” one CFO said, pointing to the unpredictable implementation of President Donald Trump’s second-term economic agenda. “It’s becoming too difficult to plan around.”
The quarterly survey, conducted between March 10 and March 21, polled 20 CFOs representing large U.S. corporations across industries.
While most respondents expressed confidence in the resilience of their own sectors, three-quarters described themselves as “somewhat pessimistic” about the overall state of the U.S. economy. Only 25% maintained a neutral or positive outlook.
The anxiety is concentrated around three major risks: trade policy (30%), inflation (25%), and consumer demand (20%). Tariffs, in particular, have emerged as a top concern, with 90% of CFOs warning that current and proposed duties could trigger a resurgence in inflation.
The Federal Reserve’s stated goal of returning inflation to 2% is now viewed by many as increasingly unrealistic—half of CFOs don’t expect that benchmark to be achieved until at least late 2026 or 2027.
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that tariff-induced price spikes may prove transitory, CFOs appear unconvinced. Most believe the current combination of fiscal and trade policy will keep interest rates—and U.S.
Treasury yields—higher for longer. Nearly two-thirds expect 10-year yields to remain between 4% and 5% through the end of 2025, limiting the Fed’s flexibility.
The survey also revealed a decline in capital investment plans. The share of CFOs expecting their companies to increase capital expenditures this year fell by about 10 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. A plurality (45%) plan to keep spending in line with recent trends, while 20% expect a decrease.
In a notable shift, a majority of CFOs declined to identify a single sector with the strongest growth outlook over the next six months—an unusual departure from the survey’s norm, which typically sees consistent picks such as technology, energy, or healthcare.
Instead, most responded with a blank: “Don’t know.”
“There’s simply too much uncertainty,” said one respondent. “From tariffs to rates to consumer demand—it’s become a guessing game.”
Despite the gloom, some CFOs are drawing a line between macroeconomic sentiment and their own performance. While 75% are bearish on the U.S. economy, an equal proportion remain optimistic about the outlook for their own industries.
That divergence reflects the cautious confidence many firms have in their sector-specific fundamentals, even as broader risks mount.
Asked to describe the current business environment, CFOs offered a range of terms: “Aggressive,” “Extreme,” “A wild ride.” And while many believe a recession is inevitable, few expect it to be severe. Half predicted a moderate downturn, while 40% anticipate only a mild slowdown.
Still, the survey underscores a deeper unease. “There’s no coherent endgame,” one finance leader concluded. “Right now, it feels like we’re running toward the edge without a clear plan for how to stop.”