Economics » Investment » What to look for in the IPO market in 2024

What to look for in the IPO market in 2024

The IPO landscape in 2024 is shaping up to be a dynamic one, with several high-profile companies expected to go public. However, market conditions and investor sentiment will play a significant role in determining the success of these IPOs. Companies considering going public should be prepared to demonstrate their financial health and potential for value creation to attract investors in this challenging market.

 

Several high-profile companies are expected to make their market debut in 2024. Among the most anticipated are Stripe, Databricks, and Reddit. These companies have been on the radar of investors for years, and their potential IPOs represent some of the most significant market events to watch for in 2024.

Stripe: E-commerce and payments

Stripe, an Irish e-commerce company valued at $50 billion, has been cited as the most valuable privately held technology concern in the world. Despite several delays due to market conditions, rumours suggest that Stripe may consider a direct listing in 2024 if the fintech space rebounds and market conditions improve.

The anticipation surrounding Stripe’s IPO stems not only from its impressive valuation but also its consistent growth and market dominance. Despite delaying its IPO in the past due to market conditions, Stripe’s market debut could become a reality in 2024, provided that the fintech sector experiences a rebound. Whether Stripe opts for a traditional IPO or a direct listing, investors eagerly await the opportunity to participate in the success story of this globally recognized company.

Databricks: Empowering data and AI

Another highly anticipated IPO in 2024 is that of Databricks, an artificial intelligence and data company that has soared to a valuation of $43 billion. With early investment from industry titan Nvidia, Databricks has established itself as a leader in the AI and data space. Founded in 2013, the company has cultivated a loyal following within the open-source community, earning accolades for its cloud-based software and data storage solutions.

As the largest IPO “unicorn” with a valuation exceeding $1 billion, Databricks is poised to capitalize on the growing demand for AI-powered technologies. Its potential market debut in 2024 aligns with the current market rally, offering investors an opportunity to engage with a company that is uniquely positioned to benefit from the AI revolution. The combination of Databricks’ impressive valuation, strong sales, and its ability to leverage AI’s transformative potential makes it an exciting stock to watch in the coming year.

Reddit: From online community to public offering

The social news aggregation and discussion board site, Reddit, has become a household name, attracting over 50 million daily users and boasting a valuation of approximately $15 billion. Despite facing challenges in timing its IPO, Reddit remains committed to going public and could potentially do so in 2024. The company filed confidentially for its IPO in December 2021, but unfavourable market conditions delayed its plans.

However, with the resurgence of market conditions and the continued popularity of social media stocks, Reddit’s IPO could become a reality in the near future. As investors seek opportunities in the rapidly evolving digital landscape, Reddit’s market debut will provide insights into the market’s valuation of digital community spaces and user-generated content platforms.

The IPO will also shed light on critical aspects such as the monetization of user-generated content, community integrity, and the overall sustainability of such platforms in the public market.

Market conditions and IPO trends

While Stripe, Databricks, and Reddit are among the hottest IPOs to watch for in 2024, it is important to acknowledge that the IPO market is subject to various external factors, including market conditions and investor sentiment. The success of these IPOs will depend on a multitude of variables, including the ability of these companies to sustain their growth, navigate regulatory environments, and meet investor expectations.

The global IPO market has seen shifting dynamics in recent years. According to EY Global IPO Trends, the first three quarters of 2023 saw improved market sentiment in Western countries, the prospect of successful US mega IPOs, robust emerging markets, and a cooling China IPO market. However, the IPO market remains challenged, with several high-profile IPOs fizzling out.

As George Chan, EY Global IPO Leader, notes, “As investors shift their preference from growth to value, IPO prospects need to demonstrate their financial health and potential for value creation.” This shift in investor preference, coupled with high interest rates and tighter liquidity, makes the IPO landscape in 2024 uncertain.

For companies considering going public in 2024, it’s crucial to demonstrate strong fundamentals, a path to profitability, and resilience amid weak economic conditions. Peter Janssen, partner in investment banking at Janssen Partners, advises that “most private companies should stay private until the IPO window opens and raise money privately, in a smart, structured way, if they can afford to.”

Investors should approach the IPO market with caution, recognising that investing in newly public companies carries inherent risks. It is crucial to conduct thorough research, analyse financial statements, and understand the competitive landscape before making investment decisions. Seeking guidance from financial professionals and consulting with trusted advisors can help navigate the complexities of the IPO market and make informed investment choices.

2023 wrapped

The recent stock market upswing suggests a renewed interest in IPOs among companies who previously hesitated in 2022 and 2023. This resurgence is further fuelled by rumours of a potential London listing for Boots, 17 years post its private equity acquisition.

ARM’s successful IPO, the largest on Wall Street since Rivian Automotive’s debut, began at $51 per share, valuing the company at $54.5 billion. The stock surged 25% on its first day, despite a subsequent dip and a 30% rebound recently. This fluctuation underscores the importance of consistent post-IPO performance for investor confidence.

ARM’s IPO strategy, involving a conservative valuation compared to its $64 billion worth when SoftBank acquired a 25% stake, sends a clear message about IPO pricing approaches.

Birkenstock Holding’s October IPO, initially valued at $8.6 billion, also demonstrates post-IPO resilience, as its year-end rally pushed shares above their float price. Birkenstock’s choice of New York over Germany highlights the allure of higher valuations and trading volumes in the US market.

The global IPO scene, significantly active in mainland China with tech company listings, contrasts with London’s subdued performance. Despite available liquidity, the London market has seen a decline in IPOs, with only 23 listings raising £953 million in the first three quarters of the year, a drop from 2022’s already quiet market.

Investor caution has been influenced by post-IPO valuation drops of companies like Deliveroo, Dr. Martens, and Moonpig Group. Furthermore, CAB Payments Holdings’ dramatic slump post its June IPO, due to unforeseen economic headwinds, has added to investor wariness.

Despite these challenges, London’s IPO market retains potential, backed by a robust financial advisory sector, a well-regulated stock exchange, and a liquid investor base. The FCA’s efforts to simplify the listings regime aim to balance investor protections with reduced bureaucracy.

Looking ahead to 2024, speculation about a potential stock market return for Boots and other candidates like Raspberry Pi and Huel indicates a possibly more vibrant IPO landscape. The anticipated government sale of its NatWest stake, a decade after Royal Mail’s oversubscribed IPO, further highlights the potential for revitalising UK stocks.

 

 

 

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