EU–US trade deal hits exporters with 15% tariffs

The European Union’s latest trade agreement with the United States averts a full-blown trade war, but at a price.

The deal, announced today, establishes a 15% baseline tariff on most European exports to the US—a sharp increase from the pre-2025 rates of 1–2%.

While it sidesteps the threatened 30–50% duties, the agreement marks a significant escalation in trade costs and injects fresh uncertainty into an already strained global economy.

A Political Compromise with Economic Consequences

The agreement secures exemptions for a handful of sectors—most notably aerospace, generic pharmaceuticals, semiconductor equipment, and critical raw materials.

However, high-value exports such as automobiles, industrial machinery, and electronics will face the full brunt of the new tariffs. For Europe’s export-heavy economies, particularly Germany and France, the impact could be severe.

Small and mid-sized manufacturers, already grappling with thin margins, now face a structural disadvantage in the world’s largest consumer market.

In return, the EU has pledged over $1 trillion in US investments, including $750 billion earmarked for energy and defense contracts and $600 billion for infrastructure and supply chain partnerships.

Analysts note that these commitments make the deal less about simplifying trade and more about balancing political optics.

The absence of clear pathways for future tariff reductions or regulatory harmonization leaves businesses facing long-term ambiguity.

CFOs Under Pressure

Finance leaders are bracing for a new period of cost volatility.

Mark McCarthy, Chief Revenue Officer at Basware, warns that “trade wars and tariff uncertainty introduce volatility into the global economy. For major enterprises, especially those with complex supply chains or international footprints, this creates hesitation around IT spending.”

For CFOs, the priority now is clear: scrutinize every investment, reassess capital allocation, and double down on ROI.

Enterprises are expected to increase automation, enhance spend visibility, and renegotiate supplier relationships to offset rising costs.

“Smart enterprises don’t stop investing, they get more focused on their spending,” McCarthy adds, pointing to an emerging shift toward technologies that mitigate risk and drive efficiency.

Compliance Risks and Financial Crime Threats

Beyond cost, compliance teams face mounting risks. Tariffs create opportunities for trade-based money laundering and other illicit activities.

Michael Joseph, a compliance expert at Napier AI, notes that fluctuating tariffs “create strong incentives for trade diversion and misrepresentation,” including invoice manipulation and falsified documentation.

His warning is stark: these practices can become harder to detect during volatile periods, raising the stakes for compliance officers.

The US already loses an estimated $600 billion annually to financial crimes such as money laundering and terrorist financing.

With tariff gaps widening, regulators and enterprises alike will need to invest in more sophisticated detection tools and cross-border collaboration to stem illicit flows.

Supply Chains Face a New Layer of Complexity

The pandemic exposed the fragility of global supply chains. These new tariffs risk compounding that fragility by forcing companies to reconfigure procurement strategies.

Businesses reliant on US markets must now weigh whether to absorb costs, pass them on to customers, or shift production closer to end markets.

Steel and aluminum tariffs remain at 50%, and while officials suggest quota-based models may emerge in future talks, no concrete plans have been announced.

For CFOs and CIOs, supplier selection is becoming as much about compliance expertise as cost competitiveness.

Enterprises are expected to favor partners who can navigate the “complex tax and tariff landscape,” combining operational resilience with regulatory agility.

What Comes Next?

While the deal temporarily cools transatlantic tensions, it leaves critical questions unanswered.

• Will the 15% baseline become a permanent fixture, or is it a bargaining chip in ongoing negotiations?
• How will US and EU regulators respond to the compliance challenges that these tariffs unleash?
• And, crucially, can exporters adapt fast enough to maintain competitiveness in an environment where trade rules are increasingly shaped by political compromise rather than economic logic?

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