Ask any business leader what is the biggest threat to their organisations, and most will say a no-deal Brexit, with few exceptions. It is a spectre that will not go away.
The managed version of Brexit- a renegotiated withdrawal agreement- may have been talked up by the last two Tory leadership candidates Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, but it will not happen.
The European Union has not flinched from its position that it will not renegotiate Theresa May’s deal, yet Johnson and Hunt have both staked their bids on being able to do a new deal.
This is where we enter the theatre of the absurd. One of these two men will be prime minister in a month’s time, the decision having been decided by 160,000 Conservative party members representing around 0.2% of the population.
Only by casting themselves as being able to drive home the deal and defeating the Brexit Party challenge- using the no-deal Brexit alternative as a bargaining chip- will either win over the Tory party faithful.
But everyone is forgeting the EU’s intransigent position and failing to recognise Parliament’s avowed determination to block a no-deal scenario.
Following the announcement of a new PM, inaction over the Summer is set to be followed by a few weeks of intense political chaos in the lead up to the October 31 deadline the like of which we have not seen in the UK for generations.
No certainties are on the horizon. A second referendum and/or a general election may feature before the year is out, but with no resolution to the inherent problem of Brexit.
If a general election sees the Brexit Party split the Conservative vote, the prospect is no workable agreement between a weakened Labour party, the resurgent Liberal Democrats and the SNP which is committed to Scottish independence.
A fractured political landscape, featuring the Queen being forced into the ensuing constitutional chaos, beckons.
The EU may tire of us, and the result may in the end be an accidental collapse into the abyss of a no-deal outcome, despite the efforts of Parliament. Most business leaders say this will be disastrous- coming after three years of planning paralysis.
How did we get ourselves into this situation? Many would argue that a blind faith in our political class to deliver the right outcome has been misplaced.
Business must now speak up in a way that its voice hasn’t so far been heard to express how catastrophic a no-deal Brexit would be to the UK economy.
Financial Director urges the representatives of business, along with finance, to explain how the future of the union, our national security, the very fabric of our society is in jeopardy- before its too late.